Welcome to Week Four of the 2007 edition of The Hoser's NFL Picks, where we’re still trying to figure out how Oklahoma State University head coach Mike Gundy thinks screaming maniacally at a female reporter during a press conference makes him look like a stand-up guy. The Hoser’d rather have Jason Voorhees overseeing our kids.
The Hoser had a lousy week, going 7-7-2 against the spread and 11-5 straight up. Our Trifecta was a mess, and Washington was an uninspired choice for a Lock of the Week. For a look at some good picks, check out AP writer Dave Goldberg, who went a stellar 12-3-1 ATS last week.
Michael Vick tested positive for marijuana use this week, which may mean a stiffer sentence. It seems like a bad decision, but it can’t totally be blamed on Vick – the state set him up with a counsellor from the Tommy Chong Clinic.
This week, we up the Lock of the Week money to $500 to keep the betting at $2,000 per week. Our bookie said he doesn’t mind – it all ends up in his pocket eventually anyway, and thanked us for his new wine cellar.
Remember – these picks are just for fun. Using them to wager money is advisable as having Vince Wilfork crawling around your house.
Oakland (+4) at MIAMI: This is the NFL’s version of “Nobody’s Watching”. Dolphins 23, Raiders 21.
Houston (-3) at ATLANTA: It’s good to see things running smoothly in Falcon country. Vick dogs it, DeAngelo Hall flips out – and Atlanta brings back Morten Andersen for the second year. That’ll fix it! Texans 22, Falcons 16.
Baltimore (-4½) at CLEVELAND: With the Browns’ total lack of understanding on how to handle young quarterbacks, The Hoser bets we’ll see Brady Quinn in the worst situation possible this week – against the Ravens’ defense. Ravens 24, Browns 14.
Chicago (-3) at DETROIT: Newly named Bears QB Brian Griese gets it easy his first week, given that the Lions defense handles itself with the aplomb of John Pinette in a Pepperidge Farms outlet. Bears 31, Lions 20.
Green Bay (-2) at MINNESOTA: Packers QB Brett Favre should break the record for most career passing TDs this week. He already owns the record for “Most Incredibly Stupid Passes Forced Into Triple Coverage”. Packers 23, Vikings 20.
St. Louis (+12.5) at DALLAS: Without Steven Jackson and Orlando Pace, the Rams are deader than George Hamilton. Wait, what? But he looks so dead on those Ritz commercials! Cowboys 33, Rams 10.
New York Jets (-4) at BUFFALO: The Bills would be underdogs to the New York Islanders this week. Jets 26, Bills 14.
Tampa Bay (+3) at CAROLINA: Delhomme will play, and then he won’t play. The Hoser is betting he won’t – although it probably wouldn’t make any difference. Buccaneers 21, Panthers 16.
Seattle (-2) at SAN FRANCISCO: Ah, 49ers fans, we hope you enjoyed those two weeks of false hope. At least you can laugh at the Rams this season. Seahawks 26, 49ers 23.
Pittsburgh (-6) at ARIZONA: The Hoser staff thought it smelled a great marketing opportunity after last week’s surprise performance, but Cards QB Kurt Warner shot down our planned “Second Coming” t-shirt line. Steelers 30, Cardinals 21.
Kansas City (+11.5) at SAN DIEGO: We would not want to be Larry Johnson this week. Actually, with LJ playing for the Chiefs, we wouldn’t want to be him any week. Chargers 31, Chiefs 16.
Denver (+9.5) at INDIANAPOLIS: Quick, what’s greater – the number of points given up by the Broncos in Indy their last two trips, or your best guess as to what President Bush would score on an I.Q. test? Hint: Denver’s rolled over for 90. Colts 37, Broncos 21.
Philadelphia (-3) at NEW YORK GIANTS: The Hoser staff had to wait until Thursday to start writing this week – it took that long for our eyes to readjust after seeing those monstrosities Philly wore last week. They appeared to be patterned after the taffy-and-cotton-candy upchuck outside a Tilt-A-Whirl. Eagles 28, Giants 23.
New England (-7) at CINCINNATI: A simple equation – Patriot offense + Bengal defense = Marvin Lewis doing that stupid Pepto-Bismol dance. Patriots 37, Bengals 24.
Lock of the Week: New York Jets
Trifecta: New York Jets, Baltimore, Chicago
Final count for Week Three:
SU: 11-5
ATS: 7-7-2
Lock of the Week: 0-1
Trifecta: 0-1
The Money Game: $-560
For the season:
SU: 32-16
ATS: 22-23-3
Lock of the Week: 1-3
Trifecta: 0-3
The Money Game: $-760
Friday, September 28, 2007
Friday, September 21, 2007
Welcome to Week Three of the 2007 edition of The Hoser's NFL Picks, where it’s tough to figure out what’s weirder – the Texans being 2-0, or Wayne Newton being on “Dancing With The Stars”. That guy’s face is stretched tighter than Larry Birkhead’s credibility.
The Hoser had a decent week, going 9-7 against the spread and 11-5 straight up. We also nailed the Steelers for the Lock of the Week, but Cincy killed our Trifecta. Is it us, or wasn’t there a time when Marvin Lewis was a defensive genius?
NFL commissioner Roger Goodell said this week the door was open for more sanctions against the New England Patriots in CameraGate. The Hoser is pulling for double secret probation and a kegger at the Delta Tau Chi house.
Remember – these picks are just for fun. Using them to wager money is advisable as asking O.J. up to fluff your pillows.
Indianapolis (-6) at HOUSTON: They say everything’s big in Texas – but this line ain’t big enough. Colts 30, Texans 20.
San Diego (-4.5) at GREEN BAY: Our crack staff came up with a list of Turners who might be better head coaches than the Chargers’ Norv – Ron, Ted, Kathleen, Tina, Ike and Lana. And yes, we’re aware Lana is dead – what’s your point? Chargers 26, Packers 20.
Minnesota (+2.5) at KANSAS CITY: It’s hard to tell which problem is bigger for Vikings QB Tarvaris Jackson – overcoming his groin injury, or getting people to realize there are two “r”s in his first name. Chiefs 20, Vikings 17.
Detroit (+6.5) at PHILADELPHIA: Eagles QB Donovan McNabb looks rusty and RB Brian Westbrook is banged up. God help me, what I’m trying to say is – I like the Lions in this one. Lions 24, Eagles 23.
Buffalo (+16.5) at NEW ENGLAND: Holy geez. You’d think the Patriots were playing Notre Dame. Patriots 31, Bills 16.
Miami (+3) at NY JETS: Looks for back-up John Beck to make his debut soon, as Dolphins QB Trent Green gets picked more than Ben Wallace’s afro. Jets 22, Dolphins 17.
San Francisco (+8) at PITTSBURGH: Everything’s going right for the Steelers so far this season – except for that abomination of a mascot. That thing looks like Kirk Douglas after going 12 rounds with Joe Louis. Steelers 26, 49ers 19.
Arizona (+7.5) at BALTIMORE: Leonard Pope caught the first touchdown pass of his NFL career last week. Cards QB Matt Leinart said he would have thrown to the 6-8 tight end earlier, but thought Pope was a back-up goalpost. Ravens 22, Cards 21.
Tampa Bay (-3.5) at ST. LOUIS: Where might the problem with the Rams lie? Well, after running back Stephen Jackson apologized for last week’s sideline tirade, St. Louis head coach Scott Linehan said, “(Stephen) knows it's not productive to get cross with people, but that's what happens.” He actually said “get cross” – and then referred to Jackson as a “real pip” and went outside to pick wildflowers. Buccaneers 27, Rams 24.
Jacksonville (+3) at DENVER: From the “We Can’t Make This Stuff Up” Department – Broncos kicker Jason Elam will be releasing his first novel, Monday Night Jihad, early next year. It’s about a terrorism-fighting placekicker who also doubles as a supermodel – we believe it's based on the life of Toni Fritsch. Broncos 24, Jaguars 17.
Cincinnati (+3.5) at SEATTLE: The Hoser wonders how many quarterbacks have ever lost a game in which they threw six touchdown passes? Bengals QB Carson Palmer might get close again, as this game will feature all the defense of the Maginot Line. Seahawks 34, Bengals 31.
Cleveland (+3) at OAKLAND: In an attempt to stop the icing of kickers, the NFL has instituted a new rule – any coach successfully screwing up a made field goal with a time out will now be kicked in the sack by Sebastian Janikowski. Raiders 29, Browns 27.
Carolina (-4) at ATLANTA: By the time you finish this sentence, former Jacksonville QB Byron Leftwich should be starting for the Falcons. Panthers 22, Falcons 13.
New York Giants (+3.5) at WASHINGTON: Sorry, The Hoser was going to say something about Redskins head coach Joe Gibbs, but Tony Kornheiser stopped by and slobbered all over our copy. Redskins 27, Giants 20.
Dallas (+3) at CHICAGO: Bears QB Rex Grossman is ranked dead last in passer efficiency so far this season, but there is still no truth to the rumour that Lovie Smith has Chicago’s front office trying to find a number for Bob Avellini. Bears 19, Cowboys 17.
Tennessee (+4.5) at NEW ORLEANS: And you thought The Tragically Hip’s “New Orleans Is Sinking” was eerily prescient when it came to Hurricane Katrina. Saints 24, Titans 23.
Final count for Week Two:
SU: 11-5
ATS: 9-7
Lock of the Week: 1-0
Trifecta: 0-1
The Money Game: $+260
For the season:
SU: 21-11
ATS: 15-16-1
Lock of the Week: 1-1
Trifecta: 0-2
The Money Game: $-200
Sunday, September 16, 2007
Friday, September 14, 2007
Welcome to Week Two of the 2007 edition of The Hoser's NFL Picks, where we’d like a head count of the number of people in the Eastern and Central Time Zones who stayed up for the end of the San Francisco-Arizona tilt Tuesday morning. Was it more than normally watch Chuck Norris flog that crappy Total Gym thing?
The Hoser didn’t see the end of that game, but that’s okay – Bill Belichick taped it for me.
Speaking of unwatchable crap, Keith Olbermann is doing guest spots for NBC, including a weekly piece entitled “The Worst Person In The NFL.” For his opener, Keith chose himself, which was good – we’ve heard less contrived banter at a George Bush presser. C’mon, Keith, loosen up and call Tiki out for being a dong!
The Hoser had a pretty lousy week, going 6-9-1 against the spread and 10-6 straight up. The Lock of the Week was a push, and of course we blew the Trifecta. In the words of David Byrne, “Same as it ever was.”
On a serious note, our thoughts go to Buffalo Bills tight end Kevin Everett. Thanks to the terrific work by the sideline staff in Buffalo, Kevin at least has a chance to walk out of the hospital. The folks at The Miami Project also deserve a big nod, and you can visit them at http://www.themiamiproject.org/.
Remember – these picks are just for fun. Using them to wager money is advisable as sending Steven Jackson out for some eggs.
Buffalo (+9.5) at PITTSBURGH: Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger is dating “Heroes” star Missy Peregrym – and you thought Hines Ward made nice catches! Steelers 33, Bills 13.
Cincinnati (-6) at CLEVELAND: The Browns this week swapped Week One starting quarterback Charlie Frye to Seattle. Hey, at least he lasted longer than FOX’s “Anchorwoman.” Bengals 30, Browns 14.
Indianapolis (-7) at TENNESSEE: The Colts thrash the Saints by 31 and they can only get a touchdown against the Titans? Your classic trap game, and The Hoser advises avoiding this one like Keira Knightley avoids shower drains. Colts 29, Titans 23.
Houston (+6.5) at CAROLINA: Calm down, Texans fans – it was freaking Kansas City. I’m sure England didn’t get all cocky when they waxed Argentina in the Falklands. Panthers 24, Texans 17.
San Francisco (+3) at ST LOUIS: Here’s a tip for the Rams’ secondary – you may want to occasionally cover the other team’s best receiver this week. 49ers 20, Rams 19.
Green Bay (PK) at N.Y.GIANTS: Due to Eli Manning’s shoulder issues, the Giants may be starting Jared Lorenzen at quarterback this week. When Lorenzen backs away from the center, do his pants beep? Packers 24, Giants 16.
Atlanta (+10) at JACKSONVILLE: The Hoser is expecting Joe Horn to pull out his cell phone again on the field sometime soon – but this time he’ll be firing his agent for advising him to sign with the Falcons. Jaguars 26, Falcons 13.
New Orleans (-3) at TAMPA BAY: The Bucs cut WR David Boston loose this week after a urine test came back positive following his being stopped for DUI. Boston had a good excuse, though – he said it was a contact high from Lindsay Lohan doing a press tour in Florida. Saints 26, Buccaneers 17.
Minnesota (+3.5) at DETROIT: The Hoser is glad for the fans of both of these teams, but the Lions winning means no more converting regular jokes into Matt Millen jokes. Go Minnesota! Lions 24, Vikings 20.
Dallas (-3.5) at MIAMI: Picking up on Wade Wilson’s medical defense of his use of HGH, former Cowboy Nate Newton is now saying the 213 pounds of marijuana he was caught with in 2001 was to help him with his flagging appetite. Cowboys 30, Dolphins 20.
Seattle (-3) at ARIZONA: Yep, the arrival of Charlie Frye is just enough to give the Seahawks the edge here. Seahawks 23, Cardinals 21.
New York Jets (NL) at BALTIMORE: For the Jets – please see the Rams/49ers contest. Ravens 23, Jets 20.
Oakland (+9.5) at DENVER: No. 1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell and the Raiders have finally agreed to a contract. The deal will give Russell $29M in guaranteed money, easily reachable escalators – and the right to tell girls he actually plays for the Patriots. Broncos 28, Raiders 20.
Kansas City (+12) at CHICAGO: Only a 12-point spread? Against K.C., the Bears will cover even if they score only 10. Bears 34, Chiefs 13.
San Diego (+4) at NEW ENGLAND: Because of CameraGate, the Patriots will suffer a few penalties. They’ll lose at least one top pick in next year’s draft, be fined a total of $750,000 – and have to dismiss Chuck Berry as Director of Bathroom Security. Patriots 24, Chargers 21.
Washington (+7) at PHILADELPHIA: The Eagles have expressed some concern about Washington’s ability to videotape illegally on the sidelines, especially given that Redskin owner Daniel Snyder could do it while hiding behind a football. Eagles 23, Redskins 17.
Lock of the Week: Washington
Trifecta: Washington, Indianapolis, Arizona
Lock of the Week: Pittsburgh
Trifecta: Pittsburgh, Dallas, Cincinnati
Week One results:
Straight Up: 10-6
Against The Spread: 6-9-1
Lock of the Week: 0-0-1
Trifecta: 0-1
Total for Season: -$460
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Welcome to Week One of the 2007 edition of The Hoser's NFL Picks, where we tap every available resource to bring you the best in handicapping – just not in the same way Senator Larry Craig might.
It’s been a busy offseason. Byron Leftwich is out in Jacksonville, Priest Holmes is still out in Kansas City, and apparently Michael Vick is going to be in for a while. At least Vick’s friends knew how to roll over.
It’s been hopping in The Hoser’s household, too. We’re expecting our second child, but my wife seems to be dead set against naming the new arrival Dobler Dierdorf Hoser. Oh well … maybe if it’s a boy I’ll have better luck.
The format will stay as it has been for the past two seasons – each game is $100 ATS, with a $100 Trifecta and a $100 Lock of the Week for an even $2K per week. When the bye weeks begin, we’ll jump the Lock to $500 to keep the number even. We’ll use Danny Sheridan’s line in the USA Today each week.
To recap last season, The Hoser was 129-123-6 ATS, 156-99 SU, 7-10 on the Lock and 2-15 for the Trifecta. We managed to lose nearly $3K during the season, but made a little back during the postseason.
Which leads us to this final sentence, a version of which you’ll see every week:
Remember – these picks are just for fun. Using them to wager money is advisable as having Wade Wilson pick up your prescription.
New Orleans (+6) at INDIANAPOLIS: According to NFL insiders, neither the Saints or the Colts are particularly nervous about opening the season on national TV. Both teams are petrified, however, that special guest John Cougar Mellencamp might play “This Is Our Country” for the 8 billionth time. Saints 27, Colts 26.
Kansas City (+2.5) at HOUSTON: Masked gunmen broke into the home of Texans cornerback Dunta Robinson over the weekend. Police said the burglars were able to enter easily, as Robinson had hired Houston’s offensive line to guard the house. Texans 21, Chiefs 20.
Denver (-3) at BUFFALO: The Bills ranked a stellar 30th in total offense last season, and how did they react? They let disgruntled RB Willis McGahee walk in favor of rookie Marshawn Lynch and Bears castoff Anthony Thomas. The Hoser likens this to when ABC thought “Three’s Company” would be just fine with Cindy replacing Chrissy. Broncos 29, Bills 13.
Pittsburgh (-4.5) at CLEVELAND: Browns rookie quarterback Brady Quinn may not be the starter, but he’s still getting mobbed by girls – despite his uncanny new resemblance to Full Metal Jacket’s Private Pyle. Steelers 20, Browns 16.
Tennessee (+6.5) at JACKSONVILLE: The Hoser has read new starting Jags QB David Garrard will make everyone forget about Byron Leftwich. We looked at last year’s numbers – seven TDs, five picks and a 79.5 passer rating – and said, “Byron who?” Jaguars 30, Titans 20.
Carolina (PK) at ST. LOUIS: The Panther depth chart lists “M. Moore” as Carolina’s third-string QB. It’s Matt, not Michael, but given that Jake Delhomme and David Carr are ahead of him, we’d say that situation is pretty Sicko. Rams 24, Panthers 21.
Philadelphia (-3) at GREEN BAY: The Hoser doesn’t want to say Brett Favre is getting old … but he totally dug our Jenilee Harrison reference back there. Eagles 22, Packers 17.
Atlanta (+3) at MINNESOTA: The Hoser has said for the past two or three seasons the Falcons needed to replace Michael Vick with a real quarterback. Well, we’re still waiting. Falcons 19, Vikings 17.
Miami (+3) at WASHINGTON: Given the drafting of Lorenzo Booker and the emergence of unheralded RB Jesse Chatman, the Dolphins may be planning a musical revival this season – “The Extremely Sinkable Ronnie Brown”. Redskins 24, Dolphins 13.
New England (-6.5) at NEW YORK JETS: Boston Herald writer John Tomase broke the story this week that Pats’ DL Le Kevin Smith enjoys painting roses in his spare time. Smith is not the first NFL player to show an interest in flowers, as I believe several Vikings players had tulips on their members during a boat ride last season. Patriots 24, Jets 20.
Tampa Bay (+6) at SEATTLE: I was mystified to read this week the Buccaneers had decided to keep four QBs on their roster. I did the math several times, and then realized many people are still counting Chris Simms as a quarterback. Seahawks 23, Buccaneers 16.
Arizona (+3) at SAN FRANCISCO: The Hoser doesn’t expect this to be a very exciting game, but check out www.azcardinals.com and listen to the “Wolfleyisms” – the odd phrasings of Cards’ color man Ron Wolfley. Our fave? “Mike Martz would challenge the First Amendment.” Cardinals 29, 49ers 21.
Chicago (+5.5) at SAN DIEGO: This line increases to two touchdowns if Lance Briggs drives Chicago’s team bus. Chargers 22, Bears 14.
Detroit (+1.5) at OAKLAND: The Raiders will start Josh McCown at quarterback in Week One after a ridiculous amount of secrecy from Oakland head coach Lane Kiffin. Man, if that doesn’t sound like a character from a John Hughes film. Lions 24, Raiders 13.
New York Giants (+5.5) at DALLAS: After Tiki Barber retired this offseason, most fans expected to see a big hole in the New York offense. Now, they also get to see one every time Tiki’s on camera. Cowboys 27, Giants 17.
Baltimore (+1.5) at CINCINNATI: The Bengals are reportedly looking at RB DeDe Dorsey, late of the Indianapolis Colts. Head coach Marvin Lewis, short on bodies in the backfield, is also interested in a.a. milne, B.B. King and CeCe Peniston. Bengals 26, Ravens 19.
Lock of the Week: Washington
Trifecta: Washington, Denver, Detroit
